Crypto-currencies: how to build stock market predictions?

Using real money is lucrative, but the barriers for users remain significant.

Stock market analysts have taken a cyclical approach to the media attention generated.

A truly simplified model gives stock market analysts the opportunity to generalize

Typically, every two years, the markets grab attention as the media turn to them for information on election cycles in the United States. Then the volume drops sharply and the mention of their prices disappears from the mainstream press.

Having worked with financial analysts for the past 15 years, on cryptocurrencies, government agency players, and some of the world’s largest corporations, I have observed with amusement the media’s interest in the future of the world. stock Exchange.

Over the past five years, that said, new interest has arisen in the crypto space, independent of any electoral cycle.

While the founders claimed lofty intentions for new models of governance and a decentralized contribution to decision-making, many were just enthusiastic about evading US gambling and securities laws, and having finally access to highly liquid global prediction markets that did not have the same limits as centralized ones, regulated markets like Bitcoin Optimizer and its predecessor, InTrade.

Building an effective prediction market

Starting with Augur and Gnosis, it seemed like every week someone was talking about the market to promote their token. Unfortunately, after a lot of media attention, none of these markets have gained much ground and most projects are already dead.

Now a new generation of participants are trying their luck, and a few older ones are continuing with v2. Poly.market, for example, claimed to have „solved“ the predictions of the stock market and, like a company of this type, saw its volume increase with the presidential election of 2020.

However, it hasn’t been proven that a stock market analyst can get constant demands , and who says it will be different for cryptocurrencies?

Using real money compared to cryptocurrency is lucrative, but the obstacles for users remain significant: the hassle of funding a wallet, understanding the market mechanism and the payment system, finding a topic interest, the guarantee not to break the law, among others.

Building a future analysis of the stock market is extremely difficult, and even if these issues are resolved there is little evidence that real money markets outperform other non-market mechanisms like the opinion polls used by the Good Judgment Open, or even the Metaculus money markets.